English
Dukascopy Forex Overview: 21-05-2012 - Afternoon
| Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report Published: 21/05/2012 19:28 | |
|
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
As G8 leaders vowed to combat financial crisis, cash gold stepped up to USD 1,600 per ounce on Monday. Spot gold increased by 0.4 per cent to USD 1,598.79. However, concerns about Greece and debt crisis do not subside, because world's leaders did not offer any specific prescription on how to rescue the euro area. Therefore, some analysts, like Ed Meir of INTL FCStone, suspect that this gain is only temporary.USD
National Association for Business Economics (NABE) revised upwards its forecast of monthly job increase in the U.S.A. for this year to 188,000 from 170,000 in its Q1 forecast. NABE estimates that GDP will grow by 2.4 percent in 2012. Growth will become faster in 2013 - 2.8 percent.GBP
Rightmove House Price Index stagnated in May with a 0.00% reading after a 2.9% increase in April. The average house price in UK is currently GBP 243 759, according to data collected by RightmoveCHF
The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2011 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds increased to 0.66%. 3-month LIBOR CHF stands at 0.11%, and is within the target range of 0.00-0.25%. Swiss SMI stock index has gained 0.27% since the opening bell, and is currently fluctuating around 5813 points.JPY
While investors are expecting BOJ to add stimulus to the economy this week, Lee Hardman of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. considers it would be a premature action and that the situation may self-correct, because Europe would be the main determinant of yen price in the nearest future. On Monday the yen lost 0.4 percent to 101.36 yen per euro and 0.3 percent to 79.32 yen per dollar. |
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"I do not expect that the BOJ would agree on the additional stimulus this time."- Masafumi Yamamoto, Chief Currency Strategistat Barclays Bank (based on Dukascopy Expert Commentary) EUR/JPY attempts to recover for the second day, consolidating within the 101.56/14 price channel, after falling for almost 2 consecutive months. AUD/USD
"We are now expecting AUD/USD at the year end at around 97, a continued move below parity."- Emma Lawson , currency strategist at NAB (based on Dukascopy Expert Commentary) Bearish momentum of AUD/USD does not show signs of losing strength, as investors political uncertainty in Greece spurs worries over the Euro zone collapse. USD/CAD
"I don’t expect the Canadian dollar to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, but to stay relatively firm against everybody else, simply because the dollar is naturally going to get flight-tosafety flows as the crisis deepens."- Boris Schlossberg, research director at GFT Forex (based on CNBC) The pair managed to hold near this year high (1.0200), though to continue bullish movement, the pair has to breach the 1.0252 level—January 16 High. NZD/USD
"[...] we’re saying that governments intent on returning their budgets to surplus are still a good thing but they should be doing it as conditions allow. It doesn’t matter so much to us if the New Zealand government delays its surplus one or perhaps two years, but we are saying that can’t go on for an extended period."- Kyran Curry, S&P analyst (based on Bloomberg) The bearish bias for the pair persists as investors anticipate further appreciation of the US dollar in relation to the New Zealand dollar. |
| Read Full Report | Read Full Report |
|
Expert Commentary
"There is no reason to buy the Yen for the time being."
Masafumi Yamamoto, Chief Currency Strategist at Barclays Bank, on the Yen. >>"We are now expecting AUD/USD at the year end at around 97, a continued move below parity." "If Greece left the Eurozone, the Eurozone would become more stable."
Lutz Karpowitz, Senior Currency Strategist at Commerzbank, on Greece exit from the Eurozone. >> |
Press Review
Europe
Eurobond clash set for EU summitFrançois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared set for a clash later this week as the new French president signaled he would make a pitch for jointlyissued euro-zone government bonds when European leaders meet. USA
JPMorgan CIO Risk Chief Said to Have History of Trading LossesIrvin Goldman, who oversaw risks in the JPMorgan Chase & Co. unit that suffered more than $2 billion in trading losses, was fired by another Wall Street firm in 2007 for moneylosing bets that prompted a regulatory sanction at the firm, Cantor Fitzgerald LP, three people with direct knowledge of the matter said. Asia & Pacific
Thai Growth Surges, Economy Bouncing Back From FloodsThailand's economy expanded a robust 11.0 percent in the first quarter from the previous three months, rebounding from last year's severe flooding, and strong full-year growth is expected due to a jump in consumption and investment after the disaster. |
| Read More | Read Full Report |
|
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
Within the observed period (May 14 - May 17) the value of the Euro, quantifiable through its respective currency index, has been fluctuating just below its initial level, while last Friday brought in considerable changes into the market. |
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
The current and the three-year global economic sentiment indices deteriorated slightly in April to 0.49 and 0.64 points respectively. The six month economic sentiment index improved to 0.54 from 0.52 in March, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA. |
| Read Full Report | Read Full Report |
|
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. |
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals extended previous gains on Friday amid broadly weaker US Dollar and China’s easing hopes.Industrial Metals
Industry metals were mostly higher in volatile session on Friday as market participants expected the outcome of the G8 summit.Energy
Energy markets were lower on Friday amid lingering concerns over the Euro Zone’s economic instability. Moreover, growing OPEC production continued to dampen investors’ sentiment.Agriculture
Agricultural commodities were mixed on Friday as US weather remains abnormally hot while sugar and coffee supplies are rising. |
| Read Full Report | Read Full Report |
|
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/CHF Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
USD/CHF broke its resistance level at 0.9250 forming a channel up pattern on the 4H chart. The pattern has 64% quality with 75% magnitude in a 55-bar period. The price rebounded from the SMA200 indicator at 0.9116, then soared to the resistance level at 0.9470 and slowed near the 0.9481 level. Present bias on the 4H and daily timeframes is bullish, which leads to an uptrend extension. SMA200 started to increase after the pair had touched at the 0.9116 level, which supports the idea of a short-term increase. Bullish traders might focus their attention on the key level at 0.9500. If the price breaches this level, the initial target for long traders could be around 0.9576 where the five-month high stands. |
Economic Research
Commodity currency: Norwegian Krone
The Dukascopy Bank research department presents the final part of its research on commodity currencies. In the current issue we consider commodity sectors’ influence on Norwegian krone exchange rates. Norway is the second largest non-OPEC oil exporter, and energy products make up more than 50% of its exports. It gives us an opportunity to establish whether the exports’ share can be named as one of the relationship-defining factors. |
| Read Full Report | Read Full Report |
| Disclaimer: This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. |
|
